Final Four Preview

Because my bracket picks this year have been so uncannily accurate (tied for twelfth of 23 in the ScienceBlogs pool), I’m sure you’re all dying to know what my predictions are for the Final Four games, if only so you can bet the opposite. The short version is: Florida over LSU in the title game. The reasoning behind this is below the fold.

First of all. let me say that I’m not picking this on the basis of personal preference. Actually, I’ve been waffling between supporting George Mason or LSU for the last week, on the grounds that they’re the only teams that seem to be enjoying themselves (the contrast between the Duke and LSU pre-game press conferences was really striking). I tipped decisively toward George Mason after seeing the clip on SportsCenter where one of the players asks if he can keep his name tag at the end of a press conference.

Also, I intensely dislike Florida. First and foremost, Billy Donovan is one of those slick huckster types, and if he isn’t actually dirty, he walks right up to the line. Also, Joakim Noah is a Rasheed Wallace style screamer– he can be the only one going for a rebound, and he’ll still yell “AAAAHHHHH!!!!” when he grabs it, like he’s snatched some priceless object away from fifteen armed ninjas, while tearing his Achilles tendon. I hate that shit– if I want to watch people screaming for no reason during routine play, I know what channel tennis is on. Shut your mouth and play basketball.

Still, I think Florida probably has the best shot to win. They’re deep and athletic, and they can match George Mason at every position. Now, granted, the same could also be said about UConn, but unlike the Huskies, the Gators have actually been playing well over the past few weeks.

UCLA will make the game with LSU into an ugly defensive battle, which is the sort of game that could go either way, but the word I’m hearing about UCLA is that most of their big men are banged up, thanks to collisions in practice. If they’re not at full strength, they’re probably at a disadvantage going against the Tigers, so I expect LSU will win by a score of something like 42-40, in overtime, with the two teams combining to shoot 7-49 from the free-throw line. I won’t be awake by the time it ends.

In a Florida-LSU final, I guess I’ll take the Gators, despite the conventional wisdom that it’s hard to beat a team three times in a season. But I have no real confidence in any of these predictions. In fact, the way things are going for me the past few weeks, you should probably bet on Mason over UCLA for Monday night…

(Despite the date, this is an entirely serious post. Basketball is too important for silly April Fool’s jokes…)