{"id":1247,"date":"2007-03-17T11:07:46","date_gmt":"2007-03-17T11:07:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/scienceblogs.com\/principles\/2007\/03\/17\/slide-rule-update\/"},"modified":"2007-03-17T11:07:46","modified_gmt":"2007-03-17T11:07:46","slug":"slide-rule-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/chadorzel.com\/principles\/2007\/03\/17\/slide-rule-update\/","title":{"rendered":"Slide Rule Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A few days back, commenter igor eduardo kupfer <a href=\"http:\/\/scienceblogs.com\/principles\/2007\/03\/office_pool_advice.php#c373674\">compiled the log5 predictions for the first round<\/a>, and tried to come up with a test of their validity. We didn&#8217;t agree on anything, but for the sake of intellectual honesty, here&#8217;s a breakdown of how those predictions fared, binned in 10% groups (so 0.5-0.6 collects those teams for which the winning probability was between 50-60%):<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><b>0.5-0.6<\/b>: 2-2<br \/>\n<b>0.6-0.7<\/b>: 3-1<br \/>\n<b>0.7-0.8<\/b>: 4-1<br \/>\n<b>0.8-0.9<\/b>: 8-2<br \/>\n<b>0.9-1.0<\/b>: 9-0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>(These records are approximate&#8211; it&#8217;s possible that I&#8217;ve misremembered a game here or there, but I&#8217;ve just come in from shovelling a foot of snow out of the driveway, and can&#8217;t be bothered to check.)<\/p>\n<p>So, well, it looks about like you&#8217;d expect. The coin-toss games were a coin toss, and the slam-dunk games went as expected. Interestingly, the predictions were wrong about the few predicted upsets by seed (giving Arkansas a 55% chance to take down USC, and Georgia Tech a 70% chance of beating Duke), and the two real upsets that occurred (VCU over Duke, and Winthrop over Notre Dame) were given win probabilities over 80%.<\/p>\n<p>What does this mean? Hell if I know. I&#8217;m just reporting.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A few days back, commenter igor eduardo kupfer compiled the log5 predictions for the first round, and tried to come up with a test of their validity. We didn&#8217;t agree on anything, but for the sake of intellectual honesty, here&#8217;s a breakdown of how those predictions fared, binned in 10% groups (so 0.5-0.6 collects those&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"http:\/\/chadorzel.com\/principles\/2007\/03\/17\/slide-rule-update\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Slide Rule Update<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"1","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1247","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-basketball","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/chadorzel.com\/principles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1247","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/chadorzel.com\/principles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/chadorzel.com\/principles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/chadorzel.com\/principles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/chadorzel.com\/principles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1247"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/chadorzel.com\/principles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1247\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/chadorzel.com\/principles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1247"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/chadorzel.com\/principles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1247"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/chadorzel.com\/principles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1247"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}